At the same time, we have to keep the role of randomness and market forces in mind. A hedge fund that made a killing in the economic downturn may turn out to be a one trick pony, making one lucky bet perhaps betting against financial institutions. Some potentially great entrepreneurs may not have been successful due to factors that were truly beyond their control. This seems to be an important factor to keep in mind when looking at a “case study” approach to understanding innovation an business success. It’s amazing how often business books site examples of success which in retrospect are not. Lehman, Bear Stearns and MF Global are all examples. Blackberry will be a hero or a villain depending on how it fares over the next months and years.